Gold will shine in a bad year for commodities – ING

US-China tensions could weigh on energy and commodities markets next year, while the outlook for gold remains favorable, writes Bloomberg, citing analystsING.

President-elect Donald Trump's promises to impose tariffs on trading partners and possible retaliation could destabilize markets such as oil, metals and agriculture as traders also look to stimulus from China to boost consumption, the bank said in its 2025 outlook.

"We expect much of the mix to decline in 2025, with supply and demand conditions relatively comfortable," Warren Patterson and Eva Manthey said in the report. "A possible escalation in trade tensions poses a downside risk as markets wait to see when and how China's support measures will impact commodity markets."

Although Trump is unlikely to affect U.S. oil production, the commodity is expected to come under pressure due to a sharp increase in non-OPEC supply.ING predicts the average Brent price will fall to $71 a barrel next year from around $74 currently. Meanwhile, new U.S. LNG export facilities could boost domestic demand and prices, allowing Europe to more easily offset supplies from Russia, leading to lower natural gas prices in the region in the event of a normal winter.

At the same time, ING predicts that gold will continue to set records due to geopolitical concerns and the average price will be $2,760 per ounce in 2025.

On Thursday, futures for the yellow metal are trading slightly lower, testing the $2,750 an ounce level.The spot price is $2,718 at 10:02 Moscow time.

The bulk of the buying will come from central banks looking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, and heightened trade and geopolitical tensions could increase gold's safe-haven appeal.

The outlook for industrial metals is bleaker, with trade factors, possible changes in Biden's climate laws and Chinese demand likely to play a role.Copper will average $8,900 a ton in 2025, up from over $9,200 currently. Grains are likely to be a key target in any disputes, while weather concerns continue to weigh on agricultural commodities and cocoa and coffee prices are expected to fluctuate further next year.