Analysts at BitMEX predict an increase in the price of Bitcoin to $200,000 in the first quarter of next year.

Bitcoin is volatile, but reached new record levels in 2025.The cryptocurrency is currently worth around 87,933 US dollars, the equivalent of around 74,683 euros (as of December 30, 2025).What happens next in 2026?We asked experts for their Bitcoin predictions.The majority of those surveyed are optimistic about the future - but risks remain.

The current Bitcoin price can be found in a separate article.Do you want to buy Bitcoin?We explain what you should consider with Trade Republic and Scalable Capital.Our depot comparison also shows other providers.

Bitcoin forecast 2026: This is what crypto professionals expect in the new oneYear

The expert estimates for the Bitcoin price at the end of 2026 are largely optimistic.“Basically, I see the asset class in terms of long-term growth,” says David Florysiak.However, the professor of Fintech at the IU Internationale Hochschule in Munich emphasizes that both scenarios - a price above or below the current all-time high of 126,000 US dollars - are plausible by the end of 2026.

From today's perspective, in his opinion a level close to or above the previous all-time high seems somewhat more likely.However, only if global monetary policy does not become significantly more restrictive, no regulatory shocks occur and progressive institutionalization continues.

Florysiak warns: “The forecast error remains very high on this time horizon: even models with extensive macro-financial information only produce very broad forecast corridors over the medium term.”In stress scenarios - such as recession or geopolitical shocks - a level below the all-time high is also realistic.

Dovile Silenskyte from the asset manager Wisdomtree, however, is more specific.She predicts that by the end of 2026, Bitcoin could be above the current all-time high of just over $126,000, which was reached in early October 2025.The most important driver here is the investments of institutional investors.

Joshua Krüger from the crypto organization Deuro Association is even more optimistic: “A Bitcoin price of 150,000 to 175,000 US dollars is realistic by the end of 2026,” he thinks. Krüger refers to changing market dynamics, which are characterized by the massive entry of institutional investors, regulatory framework conditions and the increasing dominance of large market players.

Bitcoin: Despite possible upward trend, risks remain significant

Despite increasing professionalization, all experts surveyed expect continued high volatility.Florysiak explains that this is structurally inherent in the Bitcoin market: limited supply, high levels of speculation, 24/7 trading and a market in which leveraged products and non-professional investors play an important role.Empirical studies show that Bitcoin has significantly higher volatility and “pronounced extreme movements” (tail risks) compared to traditional asset classes.

He differentiates between two levels of factors:

• Idiosyncratic, crypto-specific factors such as security incidents at Exchanges, problems with major stablecoins or market shocks caused by leveraged derivatives.
• And systematic, macroeconomic and political factors: Bitcoin is increasingly reacting like a high-risk investment to global liquidity, interest rate expectations, stock market developments and risk appetite.

"Structurally, I don't see any 'new' sources of volatility until 2026 that would be fundamentally different than today - rather a continuation of the interaction of crypto-specific shocks and classic systematic risk factors," he says.

The other experts also see macroeconomic developments as a central adjusting screw.Krüger emphasizes that the further action of the US Federal Reserve regarding US key interest rates could be decisive here.Geopolitical crises such as the further course of the Ukraine war could also cause strong fluctuations in the short term.

Positive impulses could, however, come from a possible Bitcoin state reserve in the USA, according to Krüger.The federal state has already begun the structured development of a strategic reserve.If this development could also be observed in other states, it would send further strong signals.

Will Bitcoin become digital gold? The role as a store of value

When it comes to the question of the future role of Bitcoin, there is widespread agreement among experts: The cryptocurrency will grow significantly faster as a store of value than as a means of payment.

Florysiak expects only limited additional acceptance as a payment method by 2026.Research clearly shows that Bitcoin's high volatility limits its function as a stable medium of exchange.In addition to classic cryptocurrencies, digital means of payment are also emerging that are very close to fiat currencies such as euros or dollars.

Silenskyte shares this assessment: “In 2026, Bitcoin is unlikely to find much wider use as an everyday means of payment.”Other blockchains with higher throughput and lower transaction costs are better optimized for this role.

The acceptance of Bitcoin as a store of value, however, is likely to continue to increase.“In an environment where investors continue to worry about the long-term consequences of expansionary monetary policy, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralized design offer an alternative to traditional fiat systems,” she explains.

Please note:

Stocks, real estate and other investments generally involve risk.A total loss of the capital invested cannot be ruled out.Loans can also represent a significant financial burden.Consumers should carefully consider their financial situation and calculate all costs thoroughly.The published articles, data and forecasts are not a solicitation to buy or sell securities or rights and do not replace professional advice.

Krüger, on the other hand, sees it more differentiated: “Bitcoin is simply too volatile for everyday purchases - stablecoins such as Tether, USDC or dEURO are gaining ground here because they have stable prices and can be billed immediately.”Things look different in the state and institutional sectors.If states like the United Arab Emirates are already accepting tax payments in Bitcoin, that shows where the journey is headed. As an everyday currency, Bitcoin remains a niche, but as a digital store of value it could be more widely accepted in 2026 than it is today.